Decline in reported measles cases in Italy in the COVID-19 era, January 2020 – July 2022: The need to prevent a resurgence upon lifting non-pharmaceutical pandemic measures
Bibliographic record
Abstract
From January 2020 to July 2022, 120 measles cases were reported to the Italian national surveillance system, of which 105 had symptom onset in 2020, nine in 2021 and six in the first seven months of 2022. This represents a sharp decline compared to the time period immediately preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, most likely due to the non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented to prevent SARS-CoV2 transmission. Of 105 cases reported in 2020, 103 acquired the infection before a national lockdown was instituted on 9 March 2020. Overall, one quarter of cases reported at least one complication. As non-pharmaceutical pandemic measures are being eased worldwide, and considering measles seasonality, infectiousness, and its potential severity, it is important that countries ensure high vaccination coverage and close immunity gaps, to avoid risk of future outbreaks.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".