Stable variable ranking and selection in regularized logistic regression for severely imbalanced big binary data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We develop a novel covariate ranking and selection algorithm for regularized ordinary logistic regression (OLR) models in the presence of severe class-imbalance in high dimensional datasets with correlated signal and noise covariates. Class-imbalance is resolved using response-based subsampling which we also employ to achieve stability in variable selection by creating an ensemble of regularized OLR models fitted to subsampled (and balanced) datasets. The regularization methods considered in our study include Lasso, adaptive Lasso (adaLasso) and ridge regression. Our methodology is versatile in the sense that it works effectively for regularization techniques involving both hard- (e.g. Lasso) and soft-shrinkage (e.g. ridge) of the regression coefficients. We assess selection performance by conducting a detailed simulation experiment involving varying moderate-to-severe class-imbalance ratios and highly correlated continuous and discrete signal and noise covariates. Simulation results show that our algorithm is robust against severe class-imbalance under the presence of highly correlated covariates, and consistently achieves stable and accurate variable selection with very low false discovery rate. We illustrate our methodology using a case study involving a severely imbalanced high-dimensional wildland fire occurrence dataset comprising 13 million instances. The case study and simulation results demonstrate that our framework provides a robust approach to variable selection in severely imbalanced big binary data.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.012 | 0.025 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".