Does trajectory of ambient air pollutant (PM2.5, NO2) exposure influence cognitive function? A co-pollutant examination using sequence analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Historical pattern of longitudinal changes in air pollution exposure may be relevant to cognitive risk in older adulthood. We used sequence analysis to characterize 10-year trajectories of PM2.5 and NO2 exposure and evaluate their association with cognition in a US-representative sample of 8,245 adults 65+ years old. The CACES database provided census tract mean annual PM2.5 and NO2 (trichotomized at 2010 25th and 75th percentiles [7.9 μg/m3; 10.8μg/m3 and 4.8 ppb; 10.8 ppb respectively]) from 2000-2010. Sequences of PM2.5 and NO2 were evaluated using the Halpin optimal matching algorithm. We linked exposure trajectory group to residential census tract (N=3,559) of each participant of NHATS. Participants underwent cognitive assessments annually; their episodic memory score in a given year was the mean of their immediate and delayed word recall scores, standardized to NHATS 2011 baseline mean and sd. We used linear mixed models to estimate the association of air pollution trajectory with memory, adjusted for age, gender, education, race/ethnicity, smoking status, neighborhood SES, and census division. Over 10 years, we observed 1,208 unique air pollution trajectories, which were clustered into 7 groups based on similarity. In general, participants occupying the higher exposure clusters had lower memory scores (e.g. high NO2 and PM2.5 until 2008, followed by medium level exposure by 2010 = -0.19; 95%CI: -0.29, -0.09). Through this novel application of sequence analysis, we identified 7 distinct air pollution trajectories. We found that participants’ historical pattern of air pollution exposure differentially predicted memory level such that, despite more recent lower exposures, higher exposures in the more distant past were associated with the greatest memory deficit . Our findings provide further support that use of more expansive air pollution exposure histories may offer more comprehensive discovery of air pollution’s adverse cognitive effects in older adulthood. sequence analysis, air pollution trajectories, longitudinal exposure assessment
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".