Inter-seasonal connection of typical European heatwave patterns to soil moisture
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Although prolonged heat periods have become a recurring feature of European climate, little knowledge is available on dominant spatial patterns of heatwaves and their influence on moisture-related processes. Increased knowledge will help to improve heatwave and drought prediction and mitigation. This study uses hierarchical agglomerative clustering to derive nine dominating spatial heatwave patterns from a 50-member regional climate model (Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5, CRCM5-LE). The heatwave patterns correspond well with clusters derived from an observational data set (E-OBS) and with extreme historical heatwave events. Moreover, we analyse the occurrence of heatwaves in the identified spatial patterns regarding a soil moisture deficit present before and after the event. We show that negative soil moisture anomalies in the preceding winter/spring (JFMA) can serve as a predictor for heatwaves in South Europe. For North Europe, we find a negative correlation between the number of heatwave days in summer and autumn (OND) soil moisture content.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".