MétaCan
Menu
Back to cohort
Record W4317821414 · doi:10.3390/jrfm16020064

Effects of Crude Oil Price Shocks on Stock Markets and Currency Exchange Rates in the Context of Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Evidence from G7 Countries

2023· article· en· W4317821414 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

venuePublished in a venue whose home country is Canada.
aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of risk and financial management · 2023
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicMarket Dynamics and Volatility
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsBrent CrudeCurrencyEconomicsStock (firearms)Exchange rateAutoregressive conditional heteroskedasticityOil priceMonetary economicsShock (circulatory)Stock exchangeFinancial economicsVolatility (finance)GeographyFinance

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The present study examines the effects of the steep surge in crude oil prices which has also been considered as an oil price shock on the stock price returns and currency exchange rates of G7 countries, namely Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US), in the context of the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Due to the outbreak of the war, the steep surge in Brent crude oil price returns is seen as an exogenous shock to stock price returns and exchange rates during the period from 2 January 2017 to 29 June 2022. The paper applies the Fractionally Integrated GARCH (FIGARCH) model to capture the effect of the crude oil price shock and the Breakpoint unit root test to examine the structural breaks in the dataset. Structural breakpoints in the dataset for the entire stock price returns and exchange rates are observed during the period commencing from the last week of February, 2022, to the last week of March, 2022. Except for TSX, NASDAQ and USD, noteworthy long memory effects running from Brent crude oil price to all the stock price returns along with the currency exchange rates for all G7 countries were also found.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.170
Threshold uncertainty score0.433

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.018
GPT teacher head0.239
Teacher spread0.220 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it