National influenza mid-season report, 2022–2023: A rapid and early epidemic onset
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Canada's 2022-2023 national influenza epidemic was declared in epidemiological week 43 (week ending October 29, 2022), relatively early in comparison to historical seasons. This year marks the return to pre-pandemic-like influenza circulation, following the brief and delayed influenza epidemic declared in the spring of the 2021-2022 season. To date this season, 59,459 detections of influenza have been reported out of 456,536 tests; both values exceeding historical averages. This epidemic is being fundamentally driven by influenza A, with influenza A(H3N2) accounting for 94% of subtyped detections. This season to date has had a significant impact on adolescents and young children, with a high proportion of detections occurring in those aged 0-19 years (42%). Provinces and territories have reported higher than usual influenza-associated hospitalizations, intensive care unit admissions, and deaths in comparison with previous seasons; in particular, paediatric hospitalization incidence was persistently far above historical peak levels for several weeks. The return of seasonal influenza circulation highlights the importance of sustained vigilance with regard to influenza and employment of available mitigation measures, especially of annual seasonal influenza vaccination.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".