Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper is an attempt to examine regime switches in the empirical relation between return dynamics and implied volatility in energy markets. The time-varying properties of the return-generating process are defined as a function of several risk factors, including oil market volatility and changes in stock prices and currency rates. The empirical evidence is based on Markov-regime switching models, which have the capacity to capture, in particular, the stochastic behavior of the OVX oil volatility index as a benchmark for investors’ fear. The results suggest that the dynamics of oil market returns are governed by two distinct regimes, a state driven by a negative relationship between returns and implied volatility and another state characterized by a more pronounced negative correlation. It is the latter regime with a stronger correlation that tends to prevail over the sample period from 2008 to 2021, but the frequency of regime shifts also seems to increase under more volatile oil price dynamics in association with significant events such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, the evidence of a negative correlation structure is found to be robust to changes in the estimation period, which suggests that the oil volatility index remains a reliable gauge of market sentiment in the energy markets.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".