Risk of total metachronous advanced neoplasia at surveillance colonoscopy after detection of serrated lesions: a matched case–cohort study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND : Serrated lesions are potential colorectal cancer precursors. This study evaluated the presence of total metachronous advanced neoplasia (T-MAN) at follow-up in patients with index serrated lesions compared with a matched cohort without serrated lesions. METHODS : Patients aged 45-74 years with serrated lesions were matched 2:1 by sex, age, synchronous polyps, and timing of index colonoscopy, to patients without serrated lesions. The primary outcome was T-MAN (advanced adenoma or high-risk serrated lesion) at follow-up. Secondary outcomes included presence of T-MAN stratified by synchronous polyps and serrated lesion characteristics. RESULTS : 1425 patients were included (475 patients, 642 serrated lesions; 950 controls; median follow-up 2.9 versus 3.6 years). Patients with serrated lesions had greater risk of T-MAN than those without (hazard ratio [HR] 6.1, 95 %CI 3.9-9.6). Patients with serrated lesions and high-risk adenoma (HRA) had higher risk of T-MAN than those with HRA alone (HR 2.6, 95 %CI 1.4-4.7); similarly, patients with serrated lesions plus low-risk adenoma (LRA) had higher risk than those with LRA alone (HR 7.0, 95 %CI 2.8-18.4), as did patients with serrated lesions without adenoma compared with no adenoma (HR 14.9, 95 %CI 6.5-34.0). Presence of proximal sessile serrated lesion (SSL; HR 9.3, 95 %CI 5.4-15.9), large SSL (HR 17.8, 95 %CI 7.4-43.3), and proximal large SSL (HR 25.0, 95 %CI 8.8-71.3), but not distal SSL, were associated with greater risk for T-MAN. CONCLUSION : Patients with serrated lesions had higher risk for T-MAN regardless of synchronous adenomas. Patients with serrated lesions and HRA, and those with large or proximal SSLs, were at greatest risk.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".