A Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Multivariate Analysis of the Association of Vital Parameter Variation With the Lunar Cycle in Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Over the last three years, the world has been battling a long-drawn pandemic resulting from the coronavirus outbreak. Despite the safety measures, there have been multiple pandemic waves happening throughout the world. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the fundamental characteristics of COVID-19 transmission and pathogenesis to overcome the threat of the pandemic. This study focused on hospitalized COVID-19 patients because of their high mortality rate, which indicates the need to improve inpatient management. METHODS: Based on the cyclic nature of the pandemic, observations were made to examine the influence of lunar phases on six vital parameters of COVID-19 patients. A multivariate analysis was carried out to study the interactions of lunar phase pairwise on COVID-19 statuses and COVID-19 status pairwise on lunar phases by treating six vital parameters as independent entities. RESULTS: The results of multivariate analysis on the data of 215,220 vital values showed that lunar phases are associated with trends in variations in the vital parameters of COVID-19-infected patients. CONCLUSION: In summary, our results show that patients infected with COVID-19 appear to be more susceptible to lunar influence compared to non-COVID-19 patients. Furthermore, this study shows a vital parameter destabilization window (DSW) that can help identify which hospitalized COVID-19 patients can recover. Our pilot study forms the basis for future studies to eventually establish the incorporation of variation of vital signs with the lunar cycle into the standard of care for COVID-19 patients.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.016 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".