Impact of the gut microbiota and associated metabolites on cardiometabolic traits, chronic diseases and human longevity: a Mendelian randomization study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Features of the gut microbiota have been associated with several chronic diseases and longevity in preclinical models as well as in observational studies. Whether these relations underlie causal effects in humans remains to be established. We aimed to determine whether the gut microbiota influences cardiometabolic traits as well as the risk of chronic diseases and human longevity using a comprehensive 2-Sample Mendelian randomization approach. We included as exposures 10 gut-associated metabolites and pathways and 57 microbial taxa abundance. We included as outcomes nine cardiometabolic traits (fasting glucose, fasting insulin, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, estimated glomerular filtration rate, body mass index [BMI]), eight chronic diseases previously linked with the gut microbiota in observational studies (Alzheimer's disease, depression, type 2 diabetes, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, coronary artery disease (CAD), stroke, osteoporosis and chronic kidney disease), as well as parental lifespan and longevity. We found 7 associations with evidence of causality before and after sensitivity analyses, but not after multiple testing correction (1198 tests). Most effect sizes (4/7) were small. The two largest exposure-outcome effects were markedly attenuated towards the null upon inclusion of BMI or alcohol intake frequency in multivariable MR analyses. While finding robust genetic instruments for microbiota features is challenging hence potentially inflating type 2 errors, these results do not support a large causal impact of human gut microbita features on cardiometabolic traits, chronic diseases or longevity. These results also suggest that the previously documented associations between gut microbiota and human health outcomes may not always underly causal relations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.027 | 0.046 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".