P837 Incidence, evolution of disease phenotype, time to biological therapy and medium-, long-term surgery rates in IBD-U patients in Western Hungary – a population-based study between 1977–2020, data from the Veszprem county cohort
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background The number of epidemiological population-based studies on unclassified inflammatory bowel disease (IBD-U) patients are very limited. The present study is a continuation of the Veszprem IBD population based cohort with a follow-up of the incidence and disease course of IBD-U since 1977. Our aim was to evaluate incidence, prevalence, disease course, time to biological therapy and surgery rates in a prospective population-based database of incident IBD-U patients diagnosed between 1977 and 2018, with follow-up until 2020. Methods Both in-hospital and outpatient records were collected. The source of age- and gender-specific demographic data was derived from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office. Medical therapy, time to first biological therapy, disease progression, and colectomy was registered. Results Data of 119 incident IBD-U patients were analyzed (male/female: 55/64; median age at diagnosis: 34 years(y) (IQR: 24-47)). Adjusted mean incidence rate was 0.76 (CI95%: 0.63-0.9) /105 person-years in the total study period, and 0.96 (CI95%: 0.79-1.16) /105 person-years between 1990-2018. Disease extent at diagnosis was proctitis in 7.6%, one-sided colitis (left-sided colitis, or isolated right-sided colitis) in 36.1%, and extensive (pancolitis) in 56.3%. The probability of progression in colonic disease extent was 6.7% (SE:2.3) at 3 years, 10.3% (SE:2.8) at 5 years and 15.3% (SE:3.4) at 10 years. Figure 1. The probability of developing terminal ileitis, thus disease classification change – Crohn’s disease was 2.6% (SE:1.5) at 5 years and 3.5% (SE:1.7) at 10 years. Figure 2. Perianal disease developed in 5% (n=6) of all patients during the total follow-up. The probability of receiving biological therapy in patients diagnosed after the year 2000 (n=62), was 15.5% (SE:4.8) at 5 years, and 19.4% (SE:5.3) at 10 years. Figure 3. The overall resective surgery rate was 16.8% at the end of follow-up. Segment resection was performed in 5.0% of the patients, and 11.8% underwent subtotal- or total colectomy. The cumulative probability of resective surgery was 7.6% (SE:2.4) at 1 year, 9.3% (SE:2.7) at 5 years, 13.5% (SE:3.3) at 10 years, and 18.5% (SE:3.9) at 20 years. Figure 4. Conclusion Initial disease phenotype was severe in most cases of IBD-U and colonic progression is substantial over time. Disease classification change to Crohn’s disease with development of terminal ileitis or perianal disease was low. High rates of biological therapy and surgery are suggestive of a severe disease course of IBD-U.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".