Analysis of Ionospheric TEC Variations Due to X, M & C Class Solar Flares during the Years 2003 to 2018 and Comparison with IRI Models
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Total Electron Content (TEC) is one of the exciting properties of the Earth’s ionosphere. Analysis done on TEC variation data collected repetitively over longer observation periods will give the opportunity to understand the upper echelon of our atmosphere and it also provides various applications in scientific fields. The TEC variations during the solar flares that have occurred between solar cycle 23, 24 and 25 over the IISC low-latitude station situated at 12.94° N latitude and 77.57° E longitude of Bangalore region in the Indian sub-continent is analyzed in this paper, along with the performance analysis of various internationally commended models such as International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) 2012, 2016 and PLAS 2017 models. The resolution of observation dates during these solar flares are selected in the range of 7 to 13 days for each year based on the strength and duration of the solar flare. The strongest solar flare taken into consideration for this paper is the X-28 solar flare that occurred in 2003, whereas the least strong solar flare is the C-8.1 solar flare that occurred in 2018. The maximum TEC value during these two solar flares is found to be 120 TECU and 20 TECU, respectively. The other solar flares that are taken into observation includes X-5.4 in 2012, X-2.1/M-9.3 in 2013, X-4.9, X-3.1/M-9.9 in 2014, X-2.7, X-2.2/M-9.2 in 2015 and M-7.6/M 6.7 in 2016. The performance of TEC estimation models such as IRI 2012, IRI 2016 and PLAS 2017 is evaluated using root mean square error, correlation coefficient, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. Based on the evaluation, it is stated that the IRI 2012 and 2016 model underestimated the TEC values during solar flares, whereas the IRI 2017 model estimated the TEC values as close to the true TEC values as possible. The capacity of the IRI models to estimate the exact TEC is noted to be varying based on the strength of the solar flare, i.e., the stronger the solar flare, the larger will be the variation in estimated values during the selected periods.
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Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
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Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it