A New Multi-Dimensional Framework for Start-Ups Lifespan Assessment Using Bayesian Networks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
As historical data are typically unavailable for a start-up, risk assessment is always complex and challenging. Traditional methods are incapable of capturing all facets of this complexity; therefore, more sophisticated tools are necessary. Using an expert-elicited Bayesian networks (BNs) methodology, this paper aims to provide a method for combining diverse sources of information, such as historical data, expert knowledge, and the unique characteristics of each start-up, to estimate the default rate at various stages of the life cycle. The proposed method not only reduces the cognitive error of expert opinion for a new start-up but also considers the learning feature of BNs and the effect of lifespan when updating default estimations. In addition, the model considers the impact of investors’ risk appetite. Furthermore, the model can rank the most effective risk factors at various stages. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was utilized to assess the model’s explanatory power. Moreover, three distinct case studies were used to demonstrate the model’s capabilities.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".