Multi-modality data-driven analysis of diagnosis and treatment of psoriatic arthritis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is associated with psoriasis, featured by its irreversible joint symptoms. Despite the significant impact on the healthcare system, it is still challenging to leverage machine learning or statistical models to predict PsA and its progression, or analyze drug efficacy. With 3961 patients' clinical records, we developed a machine learning model for PsA diagnosis and analysis of PsA progression risk, respectively. Furthermore, general additive models (GAMs) and the Kaplan-Meier (KM) method were applied to analyze the efficacy of various drugs on psoriasis treatment and inhibiting PsA progression. The independent experiment on the PsA prediction model demonstrates outstanding prediction performance with an AUC score of 0.87 and an AUPR score of 0.89, and the Jackknife validation test on the PsA progression prediction model also suggests the superior performance with an AUC score of 0.80 and an AUPR score of 0.83, respectively. We also identified that interleukin-17 inhibitors were the more effective drug for severe psoriasis compared to other drugs, and methotrexate had a lower effect in inhibiting PsA progression. The results demonstrate that machine learning and statistical approaches enable accurate early prediction of PsA and its progression, and analysis of drug efficacy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".