US tech labour market will be selectively tight
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Significance This was about 40% of the number in November, when Meta became the first ‘big tech’ firm to trim the over-hiring of the pandemic period and reassure investors that it was cutting costs to improve profitability. Yet even this scale of lay-offs accounts for only a small share of the tech workers taken on since the pandemic started. Impacts Venture capitalists are pivoting to fund firms focused on permanent post-pandemic changes, implying that lay-offs will hit other start-ups. Non-tech jobs at tech firms are the most vulnerable. Severance payments account for nearly half of big tech’s USD10bn fourth-quarter restructuring charges, real estate for most of the rest. Job cuts may not revive faltering efforts to unionise the tech sector for as long as labour markets remain tight.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.006 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.008 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.008 | 0.006 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.079 | 0.029 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".