A Hybrid Deep Learning Model for Link Dynamic Vehicle Count Forecasting with Bayesian Optimization
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The link dynamic vehicle count is a spatial variable that measures the traffic state of road sections, which reflects the actual traffic demand. This paper presents a hybrid deep learning method that combines the gated recurrent unit (GRU) neural network model with automatic hyperparameter tuning based on Bayesian optimization (BO) and the improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN) model. There are four steps in this hybrid approach. First, the ICEEMDAN is employed to decompose the link dynamic vehicle count time series data into several intrinsic components. Second, the components are predicted by the GRU model. At the same time, the Bayesian optimization method is utilized to automatically optimize the hyperparameters of the GRU model. Finally, the predicted subcomponents are reconstructed to obtain the final prediction results. The proposed hybrid deep learning method is tested on two roads of Hangzhou, China. Results show that, compared with the 12 benchmark models, the proposed hybrid deep learning model achieves the best performance in link dynamic vehicle count forecasting.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".