World Economic Prospects Monthly | Global
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Overview: The worst of the global downturn may be over ◼ We have left our forecast for world GDP to grow by 1.3% this year unchanged for a third consecutive month, as the steady stream of downward revisions over much of last year has halted.Our 2023 outlook is still weaker than last year's likely 3% gain, but we expect the trough in quarter-on-quarter world growth was in Q4 last year and believe growth will improve in 2023.◼ Although economic data continue to paint a relatively downbeat picture, it doesn't suggest that economies are entering a deeper slump.Indeed, given the raft of adverse shocks last year, the world, and Europe in particular, seemingly ended last year in a resilient fashion.◼ While we continue to expect most of Europe, along with the US and Canada, will fall into recession, factors such as the recent resilience demonstrated by economic data, easing headline inflation, and reduced risk of winter energy rationing in Europe all point to reduced downside risk regarding our advanced economy forecasts for this year.◼ Meanwhile, although our Chinese GDP growth forecast for 2023 is little changed from a month ago, the ending of the country's zero-Covid policy has prompted us to shift our expectations for the shape of growth in 2023.Compared to last month, we have lowered our Q4 growth forecast for China in response to the soft tone of recent data and have also reduced our expectations for growth in Q1 as a result of likely additional Covid-related disruptions.◼ However, these downgrades have been offset by stronger growth in China over the remainder of the year.This isn't enough to raise the calendar year growth forecast, but in levels terms we have increased our end-2023 GDP forecast by about 0.7%.◼ In all, we still think that the world economy will likely fall into recession this year, but we now expect the weakest quarter-on-quarter growth for world GDP was in Q4 2022.We also think that the balance of risks is less tilted to the downside and believe that the risks of a substantial global economic slump have diminished over the past three months.Chart 1: Q4 2022 was likely the low point for world GDP growth Source: Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.008 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.385 | 0.437 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".