Contagious politics and COVID-19: does the infectious disease hit populist supporters harder?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
As an example of a typical right-wing populist, Jair Bolsonaro downplayed Covid-19 and rejected scientific evidence to address the pandemic. We argue that both his communication style and approach to crisis management had consequences for the behavioural patterns of his followers, which, in turn, had public health implications. Building on survey research, we demonstrate how Bolsonaro’s supporters were less likely to consider the pandemic as a key challenge for the country, less worried about getting infected and less likely to wear masks. We show that this ‘riskier’ behaviour had concrete repercussions. Even after controlling for confounders such as population density, age, education and wealth, municipalities with higher aggregate support for Bolsonaro had higher Covid-19 infection rates in 2020 and saw more people dying from the virus.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.005 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".