Coseismic Coulomb Stress Changes on Intraplate Faults in the Western Quebec Seismic Zone, Canada: Implications for Seismic Hazards
Bibliographic record
Abstract
There is currently no active fault map for the intraplate western Quebec seismic zone (WQSZ) in eastern Canada, and consequently, no detailed finite-fault source models which are critical for seismic hazard assessments in this region with a rapidly growing population. While previous numerical stress modelling studies have shown that mostly NNW-SSE to NW-SE-striking faults exhibit the highest potential for reactivation under the present-day tectonic stress field, such modelling is unable to take into account the interaction of faults and earthquakes. This study attempts to identify possible future rupture zones using Coulomb stress analysis. We explore the static stress transfer caused by select earthquakes (MW > 4.5) in the past century to proximal ‘receiver’ faults in the WQSZ, with a focus on those that exhibit a relatively high reactivation potential, to identify faults that have been promoted to failure. The significance of Coulomb stress changes (ΔCFS) observed on the nearby ‘receiver’ faults varied widely. Among the events analyzed in this study, only the 1935 MW 6.1 Témiscaming earthquake caused extensive positive Coulomb stress change (≥ 0.1 Bar) on its receiver fault. The modelled fault rupture extents suggest a range of earthquake magnitudes of MW 6-7. This work is the first attempt to provide a physical basis for seismic hazard assessment input parameters in the WQSZ based on the results of numerical stress modelling.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".