Forecasting China's Military Industry Index: Based on Decision Tree, Random Forest and Time Series Models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
IncrEasing uncertainty about geopolitical conflicts and downward economic pressure have contributed to increased stock price volatility in the military industry sector as a result of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict which has gradually developed into a protracted tug-of-war and a war of attrition, as well as the previous financial crises.To strengthen the role of investment profitability, this paper intends to conduct more research on the index of the military industry sector.To predict the trend of sector index, a decision tree, random forest model, time series-based ARIMA model, and neural network model are used.The sector indices are forecasted using the ARIMA model and the neural network model after the correlation test is completed with the random forest model.It is predicted that the sector index will continue to rise with possible fluctuations in the future.By using the random forest, ARIMA model, and neural network model, investors are able to avoid military industry sector risks and gain stable benefits.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".