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Record W4320880712 · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-2580049/v1

Some results on maximum likelihood from incomplete data: finite sample properties and an improved M-estimator for resampling method

2023· preprint· en· W4320880712 on OpenAlexfundno aff
Budhi Surya

Bibliographic record

VenueResearch Square · 2023
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldMathematics
TopicStatistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersLeonard N. Stern School of Business, New York UniversityYork University
KeywordsMathematicsEstimatorApplied mathematicsMinimum-variance unbiased estimatorStatisticsConsistent estimatorFisher informationMatrix (chemical analysis)Minimax estimatorEfficient estimatorCovariance matrixBias of an estimator

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract This paper presents some results on the classical maximum likelihood (ML) parameter estimation from incomplete data. Finite sample properties of incomplete-data conditional observed information matrices are established. They possess positive def-initeness and the same Loewner partial ordering as the expected information matrices do. An explicit form of the observed Fisher information (OFI) is derived for the calculation of standard errors of the ML estimates. It simplifies Louis (1982) general formula for the OFI matrix. To prevent from getting an incorrect inverse of the OFI matrix, which may be attributed by the lack of sparsity and large size of the matrix, a monotone convergent recursive equation for the inverse of OFI matrix is developed which in turn generalizes the algorithm of Hero and Fessler (1994) for the Cramér-Rao lower bound. To improve the estimation, in particular when applying repeated sampling to incomplete data, a robust M-estimator is introduced. A closed form sandwich estimator of covariance matrix is proposed to provide the standard errors of the M-estimator. By the resulting loss of information presented in finite-sample incomplete data, the sandwich estimator produces smaller standard errors for the M-estimator than the ML estimates. In the case of complete information or absence of re-sampling, the M-estimator coincides with the ML estimates. Application to parameter estimation of a finite-mixture of Markov jump processes is discussed to verify the results. The simulation study confirms the accuracy and asymptotic properties of both the ML estimates and M-estimator. 2020 MSC: 60J20, 60J27, 62M09, 62H30

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.022
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.076
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: Methods
Teacher disagreement score0.022
Threshold uncertainty score0.115

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0220.076
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0020.003
Bibliometrics0.0030.002
Science and technology studies0.0010.003
Scholarly communication0.0020.004
Open science0.0020.002
Research integrity0.0020.003
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0030.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.549
GPT teacher head0.532
Teacher spread0.017 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreMethods

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2023
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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