Change-Point Detection in a High-Dimensional Multinomial Sequence Based on Mutual Information
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Time-series data often have an abrupt structure change at an unknown location. This paper proposes a new statistic to test the existence of a change-point in a multinomial sequence, where the number of categories is comparable with the sample size as it tends to infinity. To construct this statistic, the pre-classification is implemented first; then, it is given based on the mutual information between the data and the locations from the pre-classification. Note that this statistic can also be used to estimate the position of the change-point. Under certain conditions, the proposed statistic is asymptotically normally distributed under the null hypothesis and consistent under the alternative hypothesis. Simulation results show the high power of the test based on the proposed statistic and the high accuracy of the estimate. The proposed method is also illustrated with a real example of physical examination data.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it