Dark Comets? Unexpectedly Large Nongravitational Accelerations on a Sample of Small Asteroids
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We report statistically significant detections of nonradial, nongravitational accelerations based on astrometric data in the photometrically inactive objects 1998 KY 26 , 2005 VL 1 , 2016 NJ 33 , 2010 VL 65 , 2016 RH 120 , and 2010 RF 12 . The magnitudes of the nongravitational accelerations are greater than those typically induced by the Yarkovsky effect, and there is no radiation-based, nonradial effect that can be so large. Therefore, we hypothesize that the accelerations are driven by outgassing and calculate implied H 2 O production rates for each object. We attempt to reconcile outgassing-induced acceleration with the lack of visible comae or photometric activity via the absence of surface dust and low levels of gas production. Although these objects are small, and some are rapidly rotating, the surface cohesive forces are stronger than the rotational forces, and rapid rotation alone cannot explain the lack of surface debris. It is possible that surface dust was removed previously, perhaps via outgassing activity that increased the rotation rates to their present-day value. We calculate dust production rates of order ∼10 −4 g s −1 in each object, assuming that the nuclei are bare, within the upper limits of dust production from a sample stacked image of 1998 KY 26 of <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msub> <mml:mrow> <mml:mover accent="true"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>M</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>̇</mml:mo> </mml:mrow> </mml:mover> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>Dust</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> <mml:mo><</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.2</mml:mn> </mml:math> g s −1 . This production corresponds to brightness variations of order ∼0.0025%, which are undetectable in extant photometric data. We assess the future observability of each of these targets and find that the orbit of 1998 KY 26 —which is also the target of the extended Hayabusa2 mission—exhibits favorable viewing geometry before 2025.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it