Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the death rates from COVID-19 in Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper examines the effectiveness of provincially enacted policies to deter the COVID-19 mortality rate during the pre-vaccine rollout pandemic in Canada. The data has been collected from Statistics Canada and other various online resources including the Blavatnik School of Government and provincial statements. Relevant information was collected for individual provinces from 11 March 2020 to 31 Jan 2021. A two-stage least squares methodology was applied by examining, by province, the cumulative number of deaths reported as due to COVID-19 before and after policy implementation. We examine the effect of each of several policies based on a 20 plus day lagged period after being put into place. Our main finding is that workplace closures and strict gathering restrictions are associated with a decrease in mortality rates of COVID-19 in Canada. We also find that the strength of the policies overall is associated with a decrease in mortality rates of COVID-19 in Canada. Using data from the Google Mobility Report we confirm that the announcements of the policies had significant behavioural effects on individuals' movements. We interpret that social distance policies, specifically the workplace closure and strict gathering policies, have been effective factors decreasing mortality from the Coronavirus epidemic in Canada.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".