Against Imperial Arbitrators: The Brilliance of Canada's New Model Investment Treaty
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Investment treaty arbitration has become politically “toxic” even in states that pioneered the development of investment treaties. There is consensus on the need for reform. But there is a dearth of historical research on what went wrong with investment treaties, when it happened, or how to find the way forward in light of the past. As a result, reform efforts have a stumbling quality. One can see this in multilateral fora, such as the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL), where over four years of study and negotiations have produced little consensus. One can also see it in the investment treaty practice of individual states, such as Canada, which has recently lurched across the spectrum from investment treaty arbitration to a permanent international investment court, to the abandonment of investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS), and back to investment treaty arbitration. This article fills the gap in understanding by explaining what went wrong with investment treaty arbitration and when it happened. It demonstrates that the customary international law on state responsibility for injuries to aliens evolved during the 19th century to protect foreign investors against exceptional failures of the nightwatchman and rule-of-law states. As the consensus regarding customary international law standards of treatment unraveled during the 20th century due to the spread of communism, decolonization, and economic nationalism, capital-exporting states turned in bilateral investment treaties (BITs) to uphold traditional principles regarding the protection of foreign investment. Starting in the late 1990s, however, an unexpected surge of claims brought under NAFTA’s investment chapter fortuitously opened the door to the central problem of modern investment treaty practice: the rise of “imperial arbitrators” who do not merely police exceptional failures of the nightwatchman and rule-of-law states, but who choose to second-guess the normal operations of modern regulatory states without any meaningful checks or balances. Although the NAFTA Parties nipped that development in the bud, the rise of imperial arbitrators leapt to the broader universe of investment treaty arbitration, where it flourished until claims against developed states for measures such as the phaseout of nuclear power brought investment treaty arbitration to a crisis point. Seeking a way forward in light of the past, the article examines Canada’s recent experimentation with investment treaty reforms, including the development of a permanent international investment court in relations with the EU, the complete elimination of ISDS in relations with the United States, and a return to traditional investment
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.009 | 0.022 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.024 | 0.012 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.019 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.008 | 0.013 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".