From regional to parcel scale: A high-resolution map of cover crops across Europe combining satellite data with statistical surveys
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The reformed Common Agricultural Policy of 2023-2027 aims to promote a more sustainable and fair agricultural system in the European Union. Among the proposed measures, the incentivized adoption of cover crops to cover the soil during winter provides numerous benefits such as improved soil structure and reduced nutrient leaching and erosion. Despite this recognized importance, the availability of spatial data on cover crops is scarce. The increasing availability of field parcel declarations in the European Union has not yet filled this data gap due to its insufficient information content, limited public availability and a lack of standardization at continental scale. At present, the best information available is regionally aggregated survey data, which although indicative, hinders the development of spatially accurate studies. In this work, we propose a statistical model relating Sentinel-1 data to the existence of cover crops at the 100-m spatial resolution over the entirety of the European Union and United Kingdom and estimate its parameters using the spatially aggregated survey data. To validate the method in a spatially-explicit way, predictions were compared against farmers' registered declarations in France, where the adoption of cover crops is widespread. The results indicate a good agreement between predictions and parcel-level data. When interpreted as a binary classifier, the model yielded an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.74 for the whole country. When the country was divided into five regions for the evaluation of regional biases, the AUC values were 0.77, 0.75, 0.74, 0.70, and 0.65 for the North, Center, West, East, and South regions respectively. Despite limitations such as the lack of data for validation outside France, and the non-standardized nomenclature for cover crops among Member States, this work constitutes the first effort to obtain a relevant cover crop map at a European scale for researchers and practitioners.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".