Composite Analysis-Based Machine Learning for Prediction of Tropical Cyclone-Induced Sea Surface Height Anomaly
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) is closely associated with oscillations and is a crucial proxy for thermocline structure and ocean heat content in the upper ocean. The prediction of TC-induced SSHA, however, has been rarely investigated. This study presents a new composite analysis-based random forest (RF) approach to predict daily TC-induced SSHA. The proposed method utilizes TC's characteristics and pre-storm upper oceanic parameters as input features to predict TC-induced SSHA up to 30 days after TC passage. Simulation results suggest that the proposed method is skillful at inferring both the amplitude and temporal evolution of SSHA induced by TCs of different intensity groups. Using a TC-centered 5°×5° box, the proposed method achieves highly accurate prediction of TC-induced SSHA over the Western North Pacific with root mean square error of 0.024m, outperforming alternative machine learning methods and the numerical model. Moreover, the proposed method also demonstrated good prediction performance in different geographical regions, i.e., the South China Sea and the Western North Pacific subtropical ocean. The study provides insight into the application of machine learning in improving the prediction of SSHA influenced by extreme weather conditions. Accurate prediction of TC-induced SSHA allows for better preparedness and response, reducing the impact of extreme events (e.g., storm surge) on people and property.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".