The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 35N from deep moorings, floats, and satellite altimeter
Bibliographic record
Abstract
From 2004 to 2014, the Line W moorings measured a 0.7 Sv/yr slowing of the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) offshore of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Here, we combine these deep mooring observations with float and satellite altimeter data and find that this DWBC change corresponded to a slowing of the cross-basin Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) of about 0.3 Sv/yr. Our AMOC transport time series corresponds well with the ECCO state estimate, particularly when the Line W mooring data influences our reconstruction of upper ocean volume fluxes. We compare our 35N time series with a similar time series at 41N as well as with the 26N RAPID AMOC, and find AMOC declines across datasets during this time period. The relative magnitudes of these declines are consistent with interdecadal variability originating in the Labrador Sea. We find that though our integrated overturning estimate agrees well with ECCO, the structure of the deep flow differs substantially. While we cannot rule out a decreasing AMOC trend during the 20th century, we find that natural variability is too large to detect a net AMOC decrease in direct observations or the ECCO ocean model since 2004.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".