High-resolution (1 km) Köppen-Geiger maps for 1901–2099 based on constrained CMIP6 projections for seven socio-economic scenarios
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We present Version 2 of our widely used 1-km Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps for historical and future climate conditions. The historical maps (1901–1930, 1931–1960, 1961–1990, 1991–2020) are based on high-resolution, observation-based climatologies, while the future maps (2041–2070 and 2071–2099) are based on downscaled and bias-corrected climate projections for seven shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). We evaluated 64 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and kept a subset of 40 with the most plausible CO2-induced warming rates. Under the “middle of the road” scenario SSP2-4.5, the global land surface area (excluding Antarctica) with suitable climatic conditions for tropical, arid, temperate, cold, and polar vegetation is projected to show a net change of +9 %, +3 %, −3 %, −2 %, −33 %, respectively, in 2071–2099 (with respect to 1991–2020). The Köppen-Geiger maps, including associated confidence estimates, the underlying monthly air temperature and precipitation data, and sensitivity metrics for CMIP6 climate models are available at www.gloh2o.org/koppen.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".