Drought influence on flood dynamics: a global overview
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Floods and drought affect millions of people each year, but what if a riverine flood rapidly follows or occurs during a hydrological drought?The 2022 summer drought in Europe, for instance, was punctuated by flash floods, affecting societies, economies and the environment already impacted by the persistent drought. In the same summer, in Iran and Afghanistan, devastating riverine floods followed a severe drought, causing displacement and human losses. Although the abrupt transitions between opposite hydrological extremes can pose huge risks for societies, the processes behind and effects of drought-flood interactions remain largely unknown, as most studies address droughts and floods separately. This research provides the first global study of compound and consecutive drought-flood events, shedding light on the underlying hydrological interactions between opposite hydrological extremes.By analysing timeseries of hydro-meteorological and other biophysical variables for 8255 catchments globally, we reconstruct the propagation of droughts and floods through the hydrological cycle, thereby identifying and characterizing flood events that follow or compound with drought conditions. We use variable and fixed threshold-level approaches to detect extreme dry and wet conditions, and seasonality statistics to analyse the timing of riverine floods. Our results show that close succession between drought and flood occurs mainly during the transition between seasons: from winter to spring in mid-latitude areas and from dry to wet at the equator and polar regions. Although these events are rare, they have increased over time, especially in countries such as France and Germany, southern Brazil, and India. Furthermore, drought conditions often shift the flood timing, resulting in later winter floods in Europe, in the north-eastern coast of the United States and western Canada, and earlier summer floods in Central America and Northern Brazil.This study shows that although drought and flood events evolve from different hydrological processes and atmospheric dynamics, these hydrological extremes interact with the same hydrological system, resulting in system alterations that may modify flood dynamics.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.009 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".