Are riskier cities more compact? An empirical study of the 11 largest census metropolitan areas in Canada, 2016
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Why are some cities more compact than others? We argue that riskier housing markets have a costlier real option; developers would require greater compensation to build now—thus, developers are being incentivized to delay, giving rise to more compact cities. We test this hypothesis cross-sectionally for Canada's 11 largest census metropolitan areas. We interpret satellite imageries and estimate a hierarchical spatial autoregressive model to account for both the hierarchical and the spatial structure of our data. Our results show that, on average, a one-percentage-point increase in price risk reduces urban land coverage in the fringe by about 0.7 percentage point.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it