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Record W4321605570 · doi:10.1101/2023.02.17.23286087

Analysis of sex disparities in under-five mortality rates in Ghana: Insights from vector autoregressive modeling

2023· preprint· en· W4321605570 on OpenAlexaff
Nana Owusu Mensah Essel, Simon Kojo Appiah, Isaac Adjei Mensah

Bibliographic record

VenuemedRxiv · 2023
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldHealth Professions
TopicGlobal Health Care Issues
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Alberta
Fundersnot available
KeywordsVariance decomposition of forecast errorsGranger causalityAutoregressive modelVector autoregressionDemographyDistributed lagChild mortalityEconometricsStatisticsEconomicsMathematicsPopulationSociology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

ABSTRACT International monitoring organizations call for child mortality indicators to be disaggregated by gender. However, there remains a paucity of studies, especially, from the sub-Saharan region aimed at producing accurate forecasts of child mortality indicators with their sex variations. This study aims at investigating disparities in indicators of childhood mortality rates by sex in Ghana by employing vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyze jointly annual recorded data on total, male and female under-five mortality rates (TU5MR, MU5MR, FU5MR, respectively). The results show gradual declining under-five mortality trends among sexes in both the historical and forecasted rates. The trivariate traditional and instantaneous Granger causality analyses found that any of the mortality indicators Granger causes the other two combinations, except TU5MR to MU5MR and FU5MR. The forecast error variance decomposition analyses revealed that FU5MR was the most exogenous variable while long-term impulse response function analyses indicated that unit shocks in FU5MR significantly increased TU5MR. The VAR(2) model forecast constructed revealed that contrary to recent predictions based on wider interval data derived from demographic health surveys, Ghana may meet the SDG 3.2.2 if ongoing efforts are sustained and that focusing policies and interventions on reducing FU5MR would largely contribute to reducing TU5MR in Ghana. Ethical considerations Not applicable. This study did not require ethics approval or consent for participation.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.005
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.028
Threshold uncertainty score0.056

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.005
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.147
GPT teacher head0.458
Teacher spread0.311 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2023
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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