The role of brain structure in the association between pubertal timing and depression risk in an early adolescent sample (the ABCD Study®): A registered report
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Earlier pubertal timing is associated with higher rates of depressive disorders in adolescence. Neuroimaging studies report brain structural associations with both pubertal timing and depression. However, whether brain structure mediates the relationship between pubertal timing and depression remains unclear. METHODS: The current registered report examined associations between pubertal timing (indexed via perceived pubertal development), brain structure (cortical and subcortical metrics, and white matter microstructure) and depressive symptoms in a large sample (N = ∼5000) of adolescents (aged 9-13 years) from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study. We used three waves of follow-up data when the youth were aged 10-11 years, 11-12 years, and 12-13 years, respectively. We used generalised linear-mixed models (H1) and structural equation modelling (H2 & H3) to test our hypotheses. HYPOTHESES: We hypothesised that earlier pubertal timing at Year 1 would be associated with increased depressive symptoms at Year 3 (H1), and that this relationship would be mediated by global (H2a-b) and regional (H3a-g) brain structural measures at Year 2. Global measures included reduced cortical volume, thickness, surface area and sulcal depth. Regional measures included reduced cortical thickness and volume in temporal and fronto-parietal areas, increased cortical volume in the ventral diencephalon, increased sulcal depth in the pars orbitalis, and reduced fractional anisotropy in the cortico-striatal tract and corpus callosum. These regions of interest were informed by our pilot analyses using baseline ABCD data when the youth were aged 9-10 years. RESULTS: Earlier pubertal timing was associated with increased depressive symptoms two years later. The magnitude of effect was stronger in female youth and the association remained significant when controlling for parental depression, family income, and BMI in females but not in male youth. Our hypothesised brain structural measures did not however mediate the association between earlier pubertal timing and later depressive symptoms. CONCLUSION: The present results demonstrate that youth, particularly females, who begin puberty ahead of their peers are at an increased risk for adolescent-onset depression. Future work should explore additional biological and socio-environmental factors that may affect this association so that we can identify targets for intervention to help these at-risk youth.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it