Trade misreporting: Evidence from Pakistani importers
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This paper provides direct evidence of attempted tax evasion in response to changes in tariff rates in a small open economy using transaction‐level customs data for Pakistani importers. Our results show that there exists a systematic relationship between the difference in declared and assessed import values of the shipment, and the duty rate charged to the importer. We demonstrate that higher duty rates are associated with a greater misdeclaration of imports. In particular, a one‐percentage point increase in duty rates, on average, is linked with 0.4% increase in under‐invoicing of imports by Pakistani firms. The study explores several dimensions to examine the variation in estimates obtained across product types, import origins, modes of processing import transactions and the role of firm characteristics, such as, frequency of imports, in determining the extent of misdeclaration.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it