Who will dominate the global fossil fuel trade?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Fossil fuels are not distributed evenly throughout the world, and hence the countries rely heavily on international trade to secure energy supply. Characterization of the energy trade network is needed to conduct long-term assessments of energy security. This study proposes a modeling framework to assess the evolution of energy trade under current conditions as well as under future scenarios up to 2050. The total trade of each country is estimated with trade predictive models (TPMs) using key variables. Subsequently, a matrix-balancing method (RAS) is used to estimate the annual bilateral trades. The projected energy trade network in 2050 varies under each shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) of the future, with annual fossil fuel global trades among countries ranging between 538 and 215 EJ. Canada, USA, Venezuela, and China are projected to dominate the global trade network, with Canada-USA remaining the most dominant fossil fuel trade link up to 2050.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.014 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".