Atmospheric weather patterns and their contributions to the fall stratification breakdown on the Southern New England shelf
Bibliographic record
Abstract
High-wind events predominantly cause the rapid breakdown of seasonal stratification on mid-latitude continental shelfs. It is well established that downwelling-favorable wind forcing, i.e., wind vectors with the coastline to their right (on the northern hemisphere), leads to enhanced coastal destratification. A categorization scheme for high-wind events has identified the two atmospheric weather patterns that locally cause such favorable wind conditions on the Southern New England shelf and have the largest contribution to the annual breakdown of stratification in the region. These patterns are i) cyclonic storms that propagate south of the continental shelf and cause strong anticyclonically rotating winds, and ii) persistent large-scale high-pressure systems over eastern Canada causing steady north-easterly winds. Despite both patterns generally producing downwelling-favorable winds on the shelf, the two patterns differ in their wind direction steadiness and tend to produce opposite temperature and salinity contributions to destratification, implying differences in the dominant processes driving ocean mixing. We hypothesize that local mechanical mixing and surface cooling dominate for cyclonic storms due to their strong wind energy input and shear production. In contrast, the weaker but steady downwelling-favorable winds from high-pressure systems can lead to an enhanced cross-shelf Ekman cell that advects salty and less buoyant Slope Water onto the continental shelf. To assess which process dominates for the different impactful high-wind event patterns, we apply a simplified two-dimensional mixed-layer model framework that incorporates horizontal buoyancy gradients across the shelfbreak front. The model allows to determine the stratification change caused by one-dimensional surface forcing (wind stress and surface buoyancy flux) and Ekman-driven advection individually. Observations from moorings and glider transects across the shelfbreak, provided by the Ocean Observatories Initiative Coastal Pioneer Array (2015-2022) at the Southern New England shelfbreak, allow a comparison to investigate the importance of along-shelf processes for predicting shelf stratification changes on synoptic to intra-seasonal timescales.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".