Evolving relationship of Nares Strait ice arches and the North Water, the Arctic’s most productive polynya
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Nares Strait, the waterway that separates northwest Greenland from Ellesmere Island, is a major pathway along which sea ice leaves the Arctic, including the planet’s oldest and thickest sea ice that is experiencing an accelerated loss. Ice arches that develop during the winter at the Strait’s northern or southern terminus can remain stable for extended periods during which the transport ceases. The Arctic’s most productive polynya, the North Water (NOW) or Pikialasorsuaq (West Greenlandic for ‘great upwelling’) forms at the Strait’s southern end in part due to the presence of a nearby southern arch. There is evidence that a warming climate and the concomitant thinning of Arctic sea ice is weakening the arches and it has been proposed that this may lead to detrimental changes to the NOW. Here we use examples from recent years to explore the impact that the absence of a southern arch has on the NOW. We find that winters with no southern ice arch are associated with a northward expansion of the NOW characterized by reduced and thinner ice cover as well as enhanced primary productivity. In these years, there is an acceleration of the winds along the Strait that assists in the expansion.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".