Seasonal to interannual variability of salinity on the Northeast U.S. continental shelf and links to large-scale North Atlantic variability
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Northeast U.S. continental shelf is a highly productive and economically important region that has experienced robust changes in upper-ocean properties in recent decades. Warming rates exceed the global and North Atlantic average and in particular several episodes of anomalously warm temperatures, so called marine heatwaves, have had devastating impacts on regional fisheries over the past decade. Stratification will strongly impact the magnitude of surface warming, i.e., a thin surface layer will heat faster, as well as facilitate cross-shelf exchange. Ocean salinity can play an important role in the development of seasonal stratification, ultimately also modulating horizontal density gradients. Here we use various available products of sea surface salinity to assess seasonal to interannual variability with focus on the continental shelf south of New England. Data from the Coastal Pioneer array from the Ocean Observatory Initiative provides an ideal basis for validation and furthermore provides valuable subsurface data that allows assessment of the relative roles of temperature and salinity in driving density variability and stratification. River discharge along the eastern U.S. and Canadian coast drives a seasonal freshening on the shelf, while shelf break exchange driven by the interaction with Gulf Stream warm core rings is associated with an onshore salt flux. Furthermore, large-scale forcing in the North Atlantic can impact the along-shelf advection of Arctic-sourced freshwater, which likely shifted the shelf to higher salinities (along with warmer temperatures) in the recent decade. Salinity serves as a valuable tracer, in addition to temperature (having a large diurnal and seasonal cycle), of these multi-variate processes. With now more than a decade of satellite surface salinity we aim to shed new light on the spatio-temporal variability across various scales on the Northeast U.S. continental shelf and how it is embedded in large-scale North Atlantic variability.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".