Revisiting the volcanic forcing of high-latitude Northern Hemisphere eruptions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Large high-latitude explosive volcanic eruptions remain less well understood than their low-latitude counterparts, despite their potential for strong hemispheric climate impacts. Using the high-top coupled Earth system model CESM2-WACCM6 with prognostic stratospheric aerosols and chemistry, we simulate Pinatubo-magnitude Northern Hemisphere (NH) volcanic eruptions at 64° N. We show how the SO2 lifetime and growth of volcanic sulphate aerosols are strongly modulated by the initial state of the NH polar vortex for eruptions at this latitude. The resulting variability of the volcanic forcing is of comparable magnitude to its sensitivity to varying the plume composition, eruption season, and plume height. We compare the modelled volcanic sulphate deposition over the Greenland ice sheet to that assumed in current forcing reconstructions of past NH extratropical eruptions and provide a new model-based estimate of the magnitude and uncertainty of the transfer function used to reconstruct sulphur injections from such eruptions. Our results demonstrate the great potential for improvement in understanding and reconstructing the climatic impacts of NH high-latitude eruptions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".