The Early Detection of Fraudulent COVID-19 Products From Twitter Chatter: Data Set and Baseline Approach Using Anomaly Detection
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Social media have served as lucrative platforms for misinformation and for promoting fraudulent products for the treatment, testing and prevention of COVID-19. This has resulted in the issuance of many warning letters by the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA). While social media continue to serve as the primary platform for the promotion of such fraudulent products, they also present the opportunity to identify these products early by employing effective social media mining methods. In this study, we employ natural language processing and time series anomaly detection methods for automatically detecting fraudulent COVID-19 products early from Twitter. Our approach is based on the intuition that increases in the popularity of fraudulent products lead to corresponding anomalous increases in the volume of chatter regarding them. We utilized an anomaly detection method on streaming COVID-19-related Twitter data to detect potentially anomalous increases in mentions of fraudulent products. Our unsupervised approach detected 34/44 (77.3%) signals about fraudulent products earlier than the FDA letter issuance dates, and an additional 6/44 (13.6%) within a week following the corresponding FDA letters. Our proposed method is simple, effective and easy to deploy, and do not require high performance computing machinery unlike deep neural network-based methods.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.006 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".