How much does ice sheet sulfate deposition tell us about volcanic forcing?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Current reconstructions of volcanic forcing over the last 2000 years rely on scaling volcanic sulfate measured in ice cores to estimates of stratospheric sulfate burdens and optical properties using relationships derived from the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. However, there are large uncertainties associated with these conversions and consequently a large uncertainty in the reconstructions. Here, we explore the relationship between ice sheet sulfate deposition and volcanic forcing in model simulations of the last millennium conducted using the UK Earth System Model with an interactive stratospheric aerosol scheme. Treating the model sulfate deposition timeseries as a measured ice-core record and using established conversions, we explore how many of the large-magnitude volcanic events simulated in the model are missed by looking at deposition alone, and how the volcanic forcing may be overpredicted or underpredicted compared to the model itself. These results will enable us to further explore uncertainty in these relationships, and aid in improving methods to calculate forcing for past eruptions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".