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Record W4322210119 · doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15412

Glacial retreat driving enhanced methane emissions in the high Arctic

2023· preprint· en· W4322210119 on OpenAlexaff
Gabrielle Kleber, Andy Hodson, Leonard Magerl, Erik Schytt Mannerfelt, Harold J. Bradbury, Yizhu Zhu, Mark Trimmer, Alexandra V. Turchyn

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEarth and Planetary Sciences
TopicCryospheric studies and observations
Canadian institutionsUniversity of British Columbia
FundersNatural Environment Research CouncilSight Research UK
KeywordsPermafrostGlacierMethaneArcticGlacial periodGreenhouse gasEnvironmental scienceAtmospheric methaneCryosphereMethane emissionsAtmosphere (unit)Physical geographyThermokarstAtmospheric sciencesClimatologyGeologyOceanographyGeomorphologySea iceMeteorologyGeographyEcology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Permafrost and glaciers in the high Arctic form an impermeable ‘cryospheric cap’ that traps a large reservoir of sub-surface methane and hinders it from reaching the atmosphere. The vulnerability of the cryosphere to climate warming is making releases of this methane possible, but uncertainty in the magnitude and timing makes future predictions of Arctic greenhouse gas emissions difficult. In Svalbard, where air temperatures are rising more than twice as fast as the average for the Arctic, glaciers are retreating and leaving behind an exposed forefield that enables rapid methane escape.We undertook a field survey of unprecedented spatial coverage across central Svalbard to identify methane emission hotspots in glacial forefields, a previously unknown emission source. Here we document how methane-rich groundwater springs that have formed in recently revealed forefields of 78 land-terminating glaciers are bringing deep-seated methane gas to the surface. Waters collected from these springs are supersaturated with methane up to 600,000-times greater than atmospheric equilibration, with strong isotopic evidence of a thermogenic source. We estimate annual emissions of methane degassing from such groundwater springs to be up to 2.31 kt across the Svalbard archipelago. Our findings reveal that climate-driven glacial retreat is facilitating widespread release of methane, a positive feedback loop that is likely to be prevalent across other regions of the rapidly warming Arctic.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.051
Threshold uncertainty score0.101

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.000
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.044
GPT teacher head0.265
Teacher spread0.220 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2023
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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