Does opioid agonist treatment reduce overdose mortality risk in people who are older or have physical comorbidities? Cohort study using linked administrative health data in New South Wales, Australia, 2002–17
Bibliographic record
Abstract
AIMS: To quantify the association between opioid agonist treatment (OAT) and overdose death by age group; test the hypothesis that across different age groups, opioid overdose mortality is lowest during OAT with buprenorphine compared with time out of treatment or OAT with methadone; and test associations between OAT and opioid overdose mortality in the presence of chronic circulatory, respiratory, liver and kidney diseases. DESIGN: Retrospective observational cohort study using linked administrative data. SETTING: New South Wales, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 37 764 people prescribed OAT, 1 August 2002 and 31 December 2017. MEASUREMENTS: OAT exposure, opioid overdose mortality and key confounders were measured using linked population data sets on OAT entry and exit, hospitalization, mental health care, incarceration and mortality. ICD-10 codes were used to define opioid overdose mortality and chronic disease groups of interest. FINDINGS: Relative to time out of treatment, time in OAT was associated with a lower risk of opioid overdose death across all age groups and chronic diseases. Among people aged 50 years and older, there was weak evidence that buprenorphine may be associated with greater protection against opioid overdose death than methadone [generalized estimating equation (GEE) adjusted incident rate ratio (aIRR) = 0.47; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.21, 1.02; marginal structural models (MSM) aIRR = 0.49; 95% CI = 0.17, 1.41]. Buprenorphine was associated with greater protection against overdose death than methadone for clients with circulatory (MSM aIRR = 0.27; 95% CI = 0.11, 0.67) or respiratory (MSM aIRR = 0.26; 95% CI = 0.07, 0.94) diseases, but not liver (MSM aIRR = 0.59; 95% CI = 0.14, 2.43) or kidney (MSM aIRR = 1.16; 95% CI = 0.31, 4.36) diseases. CONCLUSIONS: Opioid agonist treatment (OAT) appears to reduce mortality risk in people with opioid use disorder who are older or who have physical comorbidities. Opioid overdose mortality during OAT with buprenorphine appears to be lower and reduced in clients with circulatory and respiratory diseases compared with OAT with methadone.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".