Reliable and Intelligent Fault Diagnosis With Evidential VGG Neural Networks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
With the emergence of Internet-of-Things (IoT) and big data technologies, data-driven fault diagnosis approaches, notably deep learning (DL)-based methods, have shown promising capabilities in achieving high accuracy through end-to-end learning. However, these deterministic neural networks cannot incorporate the prediction uncertainty, which is critical in practical applications with possible out-of-distribution (OOD) data. This present article develops a reliable and intelligent fault diagnosis (IFD) framework based on evidence theory and improved visual geometry group (VGG) neural networks, which can achieve accurate and reliable diagnosis results by incorporating additional estimation of the prediction uncertainty. Specifically, this article treats the predictions of the VGG as subjective opinions by placing a Dirichlet distribution on the category probabilities and collecting the evidence from data during the training process. A specific loss function assisted by evidence theory is adopted for the VGG to obtain improved uncertainty estimations. The proposed method, which incorporates evidential VGG (EVGG) neural networks, as termed here, is verified by a case study of the fault diagnosis of rolling bearings, in the presence of sensing noise and sensor failure. The experimental results illustrate that the proposed method can estimate the prediction uncertainty and avoid overconfidence in fault diagnosis with OOD data. Also, the developed approach is shown to perform robustly under various levels of noise, which indicates a high potential for use in practical applications.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".