Forecast of the Trend in Sales Data of a Confectionery Baking Industry Using Exponential Smoothing and Moving Average Models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Starch-containing foods such as bread, pastries, and cakes are usually baked at a moderately high temperature in an oven.When these products are later exposed to room temperature, the associated gelatinized starch begins to harden which causes retrogradation and molecular realignment.Due to this circumstance, manufacturers need to have a fairly accurate estimate of products demand in order to determine the precise amount of baking powder and additives for use in their production so as not to incur losses in their business arising from the stale and consequentially unsalable products.This research was therefore focused on selecting the best forecasting model using a prominent confectionery firm in Abeokuta, Ogun State, Nigeria as a case study.The study was based on 24-week operational period sales data collected from the company.The moving average model and the exponential smoothing model were the two forecasting models considered in this research.The data obtained was thoroughly reviewed and the results of the forecasting models were compared.The most effective model was the exponential smoothing model as it produced the lowest mean absolute percentage error on the average of 3.7347 for the cumulative days of sales under review as against the 15.1713 for the moving average model.However, the exponential smoothing model was considered the best forecasting model for minimizing forecasting error in this study.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".