Firefighting and Cancer: A Meta-analysis of Cohort Studies in the Context of Cancer Hazard Identification
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We performed a meta-analysis of epidemiological results for the association between occupational exposure as a firefighter and cancer as part of the broader evidence synthesis work of the IARC Monographs program. A systematic literature search was conducted to identify cohort studies of firefighters followed for cancer incidence and mortality. Studies were evaluated for the influence of key biases on results. Random-effects meta-analysis models were used to estimate the association between ever-employment and duration of employment as a firefighter and risk of 12 selected cancers. The impact of bias was explored in sensitivity analyses. Among the 16 included cancer incidence studies, the estimated meta-rate ratio, 95% confidence interval (CI), and heterogeneity statistic (I2) for ever-employment as a career firefighter compared mostly to general populations were 1.58 (1.14–2.20, 8%) for mesothelioma, 1.16 (1.08–1.26, 0%) for bladder cancer, 1.21 (1.12–1.32, 81%) for prostate cancer, 1.37 (1.03–1.82, 56%) for testicular cancer, 1.19 (1.07–1.32, 37%) for colon cancer, 1.36 (1.15–1.62, 83%) for melanoma, 1.12 (1.01–1.25, 0%) for non-Hodgkin lymphoma, 1.28 (1.02–1.61, 40%) for thyroid cancer, and 1.09 (0.92–1.29, 55%) for kidney cancer. Ever-employment as a firefighter was not positively associated with lung, nervous system, or stomach cancer. Results for mesothelioma and bladder cancer exhibited low heterogeneity and were largely robust across sensitivity analyses. There is epidemiological evidence to support a causal relationship between occupational exposure as a firefighter and certain cancers. Challenges persist in the body of evidence related to the quality of exposure assessment, confounding, and medical surveillance bias.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it