It Runs in the Family: Testing for Longitudinal Family Flynn Effects
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Flynn effect refers to increases over time in measured (particularly fluid) intelligence of approximately 3 IQ points per decade. We define the Flynn effect at the family level, using longitudinal data and two new family-level cohort definitions. Multilevel growth curve analyses of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 data showed that children in families with later-born mothers had higher average PIAT math scores, and lower average reading comprehension scores and growth, in young and middle childhood. Children in families where the first child was born later had higher average PIAT math, reading recognition, and reading comprehension scores, as well as larger developmental growth. The latter family-level Flynn effects were of higher magnitudes than the usual individual-level Flynn effect found in previous studies. Our results, showing family level-intercept and slope Flynn effects for both maternal birthyear and first child birthyear, have implications for research aiming to explain the Flynn effect.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it