Effect of Yield Spreads (State Bonds) on Economic Growth Performance in Indonesia
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This research analyzes the effect of the government bond yield curve spread on economic growth performance in Indonesia using the indicators of exchange rate, inflation, BI rate, foreign investment, portfolio investment, current account, and government accounts. Furthermore, it aims to prove the accuracy of the vector autoregression (VAR) or vector autoregression model in predicting economic growth from Q1 2010 to Q3 2020. The results showed that the yield curve spread has a significant effect on economic growth. Meanwhile, the exchange rate, inflation, and the BI rate have a negative effect on economic growth. Capital inflows such as foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, as well as the current account balance and government balance have a positive effect on economic growth. These results are useful to government policymakers, fund managers, and investors, as they provide further evidence of the potential use of yield curves as an indicator of future economic activity.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it