Predictors of cognitive impairment in newly diagnosed Parkinson’s disease with normal cognition at baseline: A 5-year cohort study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background and objective Cognitive impairment (CI) is a substantial contributor to the disability associated with Parkinson’s disease (PD). We aimed to assess the clinical features and explore the underlying biomarkers as predictors of CI in patients with newly diagnosed PD (NDPD; less than 2 years). Methods We evaluated the cognitive function status using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) and a battery of neuropsychological tests at baseline and subsequent annual follow-up for 5 years from the Parkinson’s Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) database. We assessed the baseline clinical features, apolipoprotein ( APO ) E status, β-glucocerebrosidase ( GBA ) mutation status, cerebrospinal fluid findings, and dopamine transporter imaging results. Using a diagnosis of CI (combined mild cognitive impairment and dementia) developed during the 5-year follow-up as outcome measures, we assessed the predictive values of baseline clinical variables and biomarkers. We also constructed a predictive model for the diagnosis of CI using logistic regression analysis. Results A total of 409 patients with NDPD with 5-year follow-up were enrolled, 232 with normal cognitive function at baseline, and 94 patients developed CI during the 5-year follow-up. In multivariate analyses, age, current diagnosis of hypertension, baseline MoCA scores, Movement disorder society Unified PD Rating Scale part III (MDS-UPDRS III) scores, and APOE status were associated with the development of CI. Predictive accuracy of CI using age alone improved by the addition of clinical variables and biomarkers (current diagnosis of hypertension, baseline MoCA scores, and MDS-UPDRS III scores, APOE status; AUC 0.80 [95% CI 0.74–0.86] vs. 0.71 [0.64–0.77], p = 0.008). Cognitive domains that had higher frequencies of impairment were found in verbal memory (12.6 vs. 16.8%) and attention/processing speed (12.7 vs. 16.9%), however, no significant difference in the prevalence of CI at annual follow-up was found during the 5-year follow-up in NDPD patients. Conclusion In NDPD, the development of CI during the 5-year follow-up can be predicted with good accuracy using a model combining age, current diagnosis of hypertension, baseline MoCA scores, MDS-UPDRS III scores, and APOE status. Our study underscores the need for the earlier identification of CI in NDPD patients in our clinical practice.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".