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Record W4323430128 · doi:10.33423/jabe.v25i1.5862

Nigeria’s Food Prospects in 2050: A Back-of-the-Envelope Calculation

2023· article· en· W4323430128 on OpenAlexvenueno aff
Ira Sohn

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Applied Business and Economics · 2023
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldAgricultural and Biological Sciences
TopicAgricultural risk and resilience
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersEconomic Research ServiceInternational Fine Particle Research InstituteU.S. Department of Agriculture
KeywordsEnvelope (radar)BusinessEconomicsTelecommunicationsEngineering

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

This paper extends earlier work on Nigeria ’s failure to improve living standards for its population when compared with China and South Korea since 1960. With historically low rates of growth in per capita income over the 60-year interval when compared with these two countries and the elevated growth rate in Nigeria ’s population to 2050 projected by the United Nations Population Division and others, this paper explores the consequences of the intersection of these two important “drivers” of food consumption on Nigeria ’s prospects for food security. Because of Nigeria ’s poor growth prospects, in part the result of its fast growing population, the country’s dependency on food imports is likely to increase significantly by mid-century. Allocating its scarce foreign exchange, derived mostly from oil exports, in order to feed its population will negatively impact Nigeria’s ability to modernize its agricultural sector specifically, and, more generally, the country’s physical and social infrastructure that would improve living standards and growth prospects.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.003
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.016
Threshold uncertainty score0.033

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.003
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0020.002
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0050.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.013
GPT teacher head0.183
Teacher spread0.170 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2023
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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